Welcome to this week's edition of Overbit Insights. This week's edition kicks off with a story out of India's banking system.
According to reports by the Economic Times, The Reserve Bank of India said at a meeting of its central board on Friday that it favours a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies, citing anonymous persons familiar with the discussions. According to the newspaper, India's central bank presented a lengthy presentation to its board, highlighting "serious concerns" about the influence of cryptocurrencies on macroeconomic and financial stability and exchange management.
In June, the RBI stated that it had "major concerns" about cryptocurrencies, which it had communicated to the government. The RBI added in a statement on the same day that its board reviewed its projected digital currency and private cryptocurrencies at its meeting on Friday.
In the future, legislation plans for India include The Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill 2021, which has been scheduled for debate in the Lok Sabha, India's lower house of parliament, during the winter session. The government is apparently considering regulating crypto assets, with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) serving as the primary regulator while prohibiting the use of crypto for payments. According to rumours, the administration is still working on the law and would most likely propose it during the budget session.
Meanwhile, the RBI is developing a digital rupee that will be phased in overtime. Last week, the central bank said that CBDC would be divided into two categories: wholesale and retail. "A lot of work has gone into wholesale CBDC, but retail is more sophisticated and will take longer. RBI Deputy Governor T. Rabi Sankar remarked, "We would release a pilot, whichever is ready first."
We close out this week's edition of Overbit Insights by looking at some Bitcoin market analyses.
Although traders appear to have postponed their $100K Bitcoin estimate, they still foresee a blow-off high in 2022. Although $100,000 BTC is implausible this year, many believe BTC will end the year over $50,000 and start 2022 with a new all-time high.
Bullish traders who drank the Kool-Aid of "Bitcoin to $100,000 by year's end" are now considering the prospect that there would be no Santa Claus surge in 2021. The pipe dream has now deteriorated into merely hoping that the leading cryptocurrency would conclude the year with a value of more than $50,000. The price bounce seen in BTC following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pretty much vanished, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, and the price has swept new lows at $45,500 in the last 48 hours, with the price looking like it could drop even further.
"BTC is still consolidating inside these two important bull market EMAs." The same as in May 2021 (yellow circle)." If a similar pattern plays out, BTC's price might consolidate and drift lower for another 6 to 8 weeks before resuming its climb.
The "bottom" price could be $44,000, according to some of CoinTelegraph's reported analysis. Michael van de Poppe, a Cointelegraph contributor, predicted a similar scenario. The third piece of information came from cryptocurrency expert 'TechDev,' who once again echoed similar thoughts.
According to TechDev, "Despite several swings in sentiment over the last two weeks, Bitcoin remains in the same macro position." TechDev's subsequent tweets and responses indicated a generally bullish stance for BTC in the long run, with "all eyes on the retracement levels."
All in all, it seems most are in the camp at this point that Bitcoin will cool off until sometime early 2022. Whether that comes true is yet to be decided, of course, but it will undoubtedly be a sentiment we keep our eyes on going forward.
Thanks as always for reading Overbit Insights – see you next week!